Friday, March 05, 2010


The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Employment Report for February. Reading the tea leaves, we find confirmation that the economic recovery is underway. I stick by the judgment that June, 2009 was the trough.

There was little agreement among economists anticipating the reports. Snow had dampened construction activity and retail sales particularly in the east. The "Consensus" estimates were a drop of 50,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate from 9.7 percent to 9.8 percent. The unemployment rate actually stayed at 9.7 percent and jobs dropped by 36,000.  According to American households, employment increased by more than popul;ation for the second straight month and it looks like the employment population ratio hit bottom in December.

If you strip out auto sales from the BLS's estimate of transportation equipment employment, we find jobs fell by a thousand. This gives us some evidence that aircraft industry jobs are not growing.