Is that a Tear Rolling Down Alexander Hamilton's Cheek?

Alexander Hamilton was a pesky immigrant who saw Great Britain's creditworthiness and thus ability to borrow as important to its standing as a superpower as was the British navy.  As the republic's first Secretary of the Treasury, he set the U.S. on course to creating the dollar as the world currency built on the credit worthiness of U.S. treasury bonds.

Pity Mr. Geithner who fate it is to have Hamilton's job when we suffer the indignity of a credit downgrade.  Standard and Poor's announced after markets closed Friday that America's bonds have fallen from AAA to AA.

The announcement brought quick reactions.

Guess who said the following?

"The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone...
A little self-discipline would not be too uncomfortable for the United States, the world's largest economy and issuer of international reserve currency, to bear.

"For centuries, it was the exuberant energy and innovation that has sustained America's role in the world and maintained investors' confidence in dollar assets. But now, mounting debts and ridiculous political wrestling in Washington have damaged America's image abroad...
All Americans, both beltway politicians and those on Main Street, have to do some serious soul-searching to bring their country back from a potential financial abyss."

(A) A big bond investor
(B) A foreign upstart
(C) A news service
(D) All of the above
(E) None of the above

The correct answer is (D).  Saturday, in the wake of the downgrade,  Xinhua, China's official news service editorialized the words you just read.  The signed editorial was attributed to Yamei Wang.  It is embarrassing to be lectured by China especially when China is calling a spade a spade.

No Wonder We Have a Trade Deficit: Did You Know You Need Permission to Export Natural Gas?

As the U.S. Balance of Payments Drives Us Deeper Into the Hole

The U.S. is running a current account deficit of almost a half trillion dollars (c. $450 billion.)  China has accumulated some $2 trillion of dollar denominated foreign exchange reserves in its $3+ trillion hoard.  The U.S. Treasury is in hock to China for over $1.1 trillion.  Our energy trade deficit was approximately $850 billion in 2010.  That means that other than energy, our current account had a surplus of some $400 billion.

Getting our international accounts into surplus and preserving the reserve currency status of the dollar should be a priority.  The President has called for doubling our exports in five years.  It is not clear what might make that happen, but exporting something the U.S. has in surplus should be good news.  Or so you would think.

Cutting Into Our Energy Deficit Should Be a Good Place to Start

Gregory Meyer writes in the Financial Times, "The US approved the first exports of large quantities of natural gas through the Gulf of Mexico," specifically, the Department of Energy granted a license for Houston's Cheniere  Energy to "refit a gas import terminal to condense and ship up to 2.2bn cubic feet a day" of liquified natural gas (LNG.)  According to the DOE, "In August 2010, [Cheniere's] Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC filed a two-part application requesting authority to export up to 803 billion cubic feet per year of domestically produced natural gas as LNG for a period of 20 years. On September 10, 2010, the Department approved these exports to 15 countries with which the U.S. already has a Free Trade Agreement covering natural gas. Today the Department is extending this authorization to include all other countries except those that lack the ability to receive imports or those with which trade is prohibited by U.S. law or policy."

Please note: Cheniere had to ask permission to help right our balance of payments! 

Apparently we have rules that prohibit exporting natural gas.  Getting a "Get Out of Jail Free" card also allows others to lobby against the license.  In this case a group called the Industrial Energy Consumers of America lobbied against Cheniere.  No wonder the dollar is on the ropes!

Are these rules some fossilized leftovers from the 1970s?  ("A sober economic historian would judge the years 1973 to 1982 as the worst decade in the last sixty years." See also "When Will They Ever Learn?") In that horrible decade, we had widespread natural gas shortages caused by government price controls.  A tangled web of administrative rules, laws, and policies tried to contain the damage done by price controls.

Some background:

Pioneers like Michell Energy developed some tricky technology that has allowed Americans to tap huge new reserves of natural gas.  These reserves are trapped in deep shale formations that require very unconventional drilling techniques to capture the gas.  These reserves ("shale gas" for short) have been the focus of a drilling boom in the U.S. and have created an enormous glut of natural gas.

This is the one great "good news" news story in recent years for the U.S. economy. Natural gas prices are fluctuating near $4 per mmBtu. Henry Hub Natural Gas settled at $4.32 today.  This is close to a third of its 2008 peak.  By way of comparison, the energy equivalent price of oil would be about $16 per mmBtu.  This means Americans are getting a great bargain.

Internationally, prices are much higher.  Britons pay over twice our price for natural gas and in Asia the price is more like four times as much.  In much of the world, natural gas contracts are tied to the price of oil.  Why are these price differences not arbitraged away?  It is not easy to get natural gas from one place to another.  The U.S. has facilities for re-gasifying imported liquified natural gas (LNG).  These facilities were built in the 1970s: remember those artificial shortages?  Our facilities are limited for liquifying natural gas for export.  Hence this project and similar ones.  How many are going to rush to invest in such facilities if they will wait for eight months may to be told, "No you can't!"

Good Bye Reserve Currency?

It was a bit of a shock to read James Politi writing in the Financial Times that the, "World Bank sees end to dollar’s hegemony."  The shock was not that the dollar will lose its status as the sole reserve currency in the long run, but that the source of the forecast was the World Bank.  The lead author of the report of the World Bank report was Mansoor Dailam.  He sees a "multi-currency system" with the euro, the renminbi, and the dollar playing roles.  Dr. Dailam argued the "shift will be driven by the increasing power and strength of emerging market economies, with six countries – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Korea – accounting for more than half of global growth in 14 years."  From now to 2025, the World Bank pegs emerging economies as growing 4.7% and the developed economies barely hitting a 2.3% growth rate.

The FT quotes the report as saying, “The current predominance of the US dollar would end sometime before 2025 and would be replaced by a monetary system in which the dollar, the euro and the renminbi would each serve as full-fledged international currencies.”

Is Our National Defense As Sound as the Dollar?

In the 1950s, Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal.  Britain and France invaded.  America opposed the invasion.  The Eisenhower administration had no need to sent the marines.  It simply threatened to sell sterling bonds and vetoed IMF support for the pound forcing its devaluation. Pecunia was indeed the nervi belli.  Egypt kept the Canal.  One can picture a British gentleman, a veteran of the colonial wars, muttering over his brandy "I could understand superior arms, but the balance of payments?"

Greece, whose debt is owed in euros, a currency it can not print, is facing a major debt crisis.  While the country itself is an experienced deadbeat (Greece spent half its modern independent existence in default), its debt crisis is is putting great strain on the euro and the euro zone governments. 

Yet Greece's fiscal wantonness is not any worse than that of the U.S., which can print the currency it borrows in.  How secure are we in borrowing and borrowing?  Harvard professor Nigel Ferguson is an insightful student of financial history who knows what he is talking about. He warned in the Financial Times last week (2/10/2010) that "A Greek crisis is coming to America." 

Surveying the wreckage fiscal stimulus has wrought, Ferguson courts all the popularity of a biblical prophet by warning us "What we in the western world are about to learn is that there is no such thing as a Keynesian free lunch."  I might add Keynes himself would agree. 

Ferguson writes, "On reflection, it is appropriate that the fiscal crisis of the west has begun in Greece, the birthplace of western civilization. Soon it will cross the channel to Britain. But the key question is when that crisis will reach the last bastion of western power, on the other side of the Atlantic."

The bond markets may seem rather remote from our national security, but beware. Great empires require sound money and a good credit rating. Constantine's solidus held its value for 700 years and the Roman empire survived another thousand years in the East. Alexander Hamilton correctly viewed Great Britain's ability to borrow funds as essential to its military success as its navy.  America's currency and its debt earned a reputation worthy of trust which we rode to becoming a superpower.

Yet, sadly, neither a sound dollar nor a triple A credit rating seem high on Mr. Obama's national security agenda.   

Sic transit gloria.

Requiem for the Dollar

Constantine the Great created the solidus, a gold coin that held its value well enough to be a monetary standard for seven hundred years.  The Bretton Woods monetary system survived a quarter century.  The U.S. dollar is worth maybe 5% of its 1900 value.

Jim Grant, the sage of the bond market, writes in the Wall Street Journal a lengthy, witty, thoughtful, and ultimately depressing "Requiem for the Dollar. "  He tells us, "To give modernity its due, the dollar has cut a swath in the world. There's no greater success story in the long history of money than the common greenback. Of no intrinsic value, collateralized by nothing, it passes from hand to trusting hand the world over. More than half of the $923 billion's worth of currency in circulation is in the possession of foreigners."

Yet like all great schemes it has its limits.  "But now the world is losing faith, as well it might. It's not that the dollar is overvalued—economists at Deutsche Bank estimate it's 20% too cheap against the euro. The problem lies with its management. The greenback is a glorious old brand that's looking more and more like General Motors."  Ouch!  Take away my membership in the American Economics Association before you compare me to Rick Wagnoner!

The strength of the dollar is of both economic and geopolitical significance. 

Stable monetary values make economic calculation easier and facilitates prosperity.  Unstable money gives incentives to speculate and invest capital and human energy into unproductive activities.  Diverting human and financial capital form productive activity makes society poorer.  It is one of the two legs of Robert Mundell's "policy mix," which not only won him a Nobel Prize, but also is the foundation of Supply-Side Economics as Brian Domitrovic demonstrates in his new book, The Econoclasts: The Rebels Who Sparked the Supply-Side Revolution and Restored American Prosperity." 

Our current international financial system has no anchor in the real economy.  We have floating exchange rates that float whithersoever the whims of speculators send them.  Wallace and Sargent demonstrated three decades ago that floating exchange rates have no equilibrium.  The result is uncertainty in trade, profits for banks, and the diversion of many clever folk into speculation.

President Obama's new realism (see "Is there an Obama Doctrine?" in the Economist) seems to say that we as a superpower will assert our selfs, if we can afford it.  With such an anemic dollar it is hard to say we will afford much!

The Bank of China Has Elevated Zhou Xiaochuan's Call for International Monetary Reform

Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan, is the People's Bank of China's Governor and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee. He published a paper on March 23, 2009 calling for increased use of the SDR as a reserve currency. Read Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's call to "Reform the International Monetary System" on the Bank's web site.

Robert Flint in the Wall Street Journal tells us, "In its 2009 financial-stability report on Friday, the People's Bank of China elevated the status of earlier suggestions for a new international currency. The ideas put forward in March in an essay by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan have now become part of the official view.

"The report is essentially a reiteration of the call in Mr. Zhou's essay for expanded use of Special Drawing Rights, a basket of currencies used by the International Monetary Fund. There is nothing in the stability report that hasn't been stated before.

"The central bank took a big step when it published Mr. Zhou's essay in English on its Web site in March. But to make his views a central-bank-backed position puts more authority behind the call for a new reserve currency.

"The central bank is an arm of the Chinese government and ultimately answers to the State Council, the country's highest governing body."

China to Be Long On Gold & Real Estate and Short on the Dollar

Zhou Xin and Alan Wheatley report in the Guardian, "Li Lianzhong, who heads the economic department of the Party's policy research office, said China should use more of its $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to buy energy and natural resource assets.

"Speaking at a foreign exchange and gold forum, Li also said that buying land in the United States was a better option for China than buying U.S. Treasury securities.

"'Should we buy gold or U.S. Treasuries?' Li asked. 'The U.S. is printing dollars on a massive scale, and in view of that trend, according to the laws of economics, there is no doubt that the dollar will fall. So gold should be a better choice.'"

China has 1,054 metric tonnes which, with gold selling at $941/oz, is worth $35 billion compared to America's 8,133.5 metric tonnes worth $270 billion.

Dow Jones reported that gold was up during the day's trading: "The initial rise occurred on a day when the U.S. dollar weakened partly in response to comments from the People's Bank of China saying it will push for reform of the international currency system to make it more diversified and reduce over-reliance on the current reserve currencies, primarily the dollar. This particularly caught the eye of gold traders a day after a senior economic researcher in the Communist Party expressed concern about the dollar and said gold could be a better alternative.

"'The People's Bank of China's call for a new global reserve currency or super-sovereign currency will likely lead to further pressure on the dollar and gold buying,' said Mark O'Byrne, director of bullion dealer GoldCore. "


The BRIC countries have called for the creation of a new reserve currency or at least a reduced dependence on the dollar.

According to Zhou Xin and Alan Wheatley, "China disclosed on April 24 that it had increased its holdings of gold to 1,054 tonnes from 600 tonnes since 2003.

"However, China's foreign exchange reserves have grown so fast over the same period that gold's share of the stockpile, the largest in the world, has shrunk.

"Li cited the high share of gold in the foreign exchange reserves of the United States, Italy, Germany and France, to argue that China's gold holdings, which account for about 1.6 percent of its reserves, are too small.

REFORMING THE SDR

"China does not disclose the composition of its currency reserves, but bankers assume around 70 percent of it is held in dollar assets.

"China is the largest single holder of U.S. Treasuries, with $763.5 billion at the end of April, according to U.S. Treasury data. [ID:nTRU000389].

"Analysts say this data set understates the true number as it does not capture paper bought through dealers in London or elsewhere.

"Li said a second reason for buying more gold would be in anticipation of the yuan one day becoming a reserve currency.

"The yuan is not convertible on the capital account, meaning it cannot be freely traded for other currencies for financial transactions that are not related to trade.

"This rules out the yuan's use as an international reserve currency, for central banks would not be able to convert it quickly if necessary.

"But, in a very preliminary step towards that goal, China is paving the way for greater use of the yuan beyond its borders.

"
The People's Bank of China has arranged currency swap deals with six countries since December totaling 650 billion yuan ($95 billion) so that trade and investment with China can be conducted in yuan, not dollars.

"And China will soon allow selected firms in the southern province of Guangdong that trade with Hong Kong to settle their transactions in yuan, or renminbi.

"'If the yuan should go international or become a reserve currency, China needs more gold to back that,' Li said.

"When the yuan does become an international currency, which Li acknowledged was a long way off, he said the composition of the SDR should be reformed to include the Chinese currency.

Ideally, in the long term, the SDR would be made up of the dollar, euro, sterling and yen and yuan, each with a weighting of 20 percent, Li said.

"The SDR is currently made up of the dollar (with a weighting of 44 percent), the euro (34 percent), the yen (11 percent) and sterling (11 percent)

"The four currencies in the SDR, which must be convertible, are those issued by Fund members with the largest share of global trade. The weights assigned by the IMF are based on the value of exports and the amount of reserves denominated in those currencies.

"The composition of the basket is reviewed every five years. the next review is due in 2010."