Sexy is scary I

Butterwood argues in the Economist that the U.S. stock market is overvalued.  At 32.8, the Cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio (CAPE) is certainly pricey.  Perhaps that is one reason investors have backed off some of their love affair with FAANG stocks.

Buttonwood cites research by Research Affiliates, a fund-management group.
You can hear the authors of the research ("Cape Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong"), Rob Arnott Vitali Kalesnik Jim Masturzo, explain their thesis in in this video.

What is The Millennials' Biggest Investment Mistake?

Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab speaks to Barrons about "The Biggest Mistake Millennial Investors Make." Gunshy from two grand bear markets, they fail to see that a market crash is not their only risk. Here's how to protect against other risks as well:

Cheap Or Dear?

Cheap or dear? That is the question: Whether it is nobler for the pocketbook to buy stocks or sell them! Aye, there's the rub.  

The FT's John Authers squares Robert Shiller off against Jeremy Siegel in a debate over whether stocks are over priced or under priced.

I met Robert Shiller when he was first attacking the Efficient Market Hypothesis, a dogma that commanded stronger belief among finance professors than the Real Presence did from Catholics at the time.  He showed statistically that if stocks represent the present value of future earnings and/or dividends, stock prices are much too volatile to be correctly valued.  Later he took the profession on using the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio as his lance.  You can link to his data online.

Market strategists and the like have tried to use it to guage when the market as a whole is too dear or too cheap.  Shiller's measure is signalling stock prices are too rich in Great Britain and the U.S.  

Jeremy Siegel, like Shiller a student of long data trends, argues against this conclusion and, specifically, that "The ratio’s pessimistic predictions are based on biased data."  The problem with any P/E ratio is measuring the denominator.  Earnings reflect accounting and even adjusted for inflation, as Shiller does, may not be the proper measure.  Earnings are affected by companies' use of leverage and the growth in earnings is affected by firms dividend payout practices.  Faster earnings growth should be associated with higher valuations.

One factor neither seems to address is my observation that the business cycle is now a ten year cycle in the image of the nineteenth century British trade cycle.  This is a departure from the immediate postwar cycle which was a five year inventory cycle.

As an investor, you still have to choose whether to buy and hold or make timly entries into and out of the market:  "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings."

Danger: Low Returns Ahead

In this video James Mackintosh talks about his article, "Be prepared for future low returns," which appeared in the Financial Times on February 10th.  Low interest rates now mean lousy returns for both stocks and bonds.  This is based on work by three academics from the London School of Economics:  "Looking across 20 countries since 1900, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School found a clear link between real interest rates and future returns."  Their research can be found in the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013. It is free.

The Great Rotation Part II

In this second video (4m 19sec), those hoping for a "great rotation" from bonds to stocks might start by looking for smaller rotations within the equity market. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says the signs are mixed.

The Great Rotation Part I

In this January 31st FT video (5m 18sec), David Bowers, global strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, discusses the main issue in asset allocation with Long View columnist John Authers.  Financial panic has subsided into mere nervousness that a great rotation by investors from bonds into equities could be imminent.  Is the shift in monetary regime clear enough yet, and there is a danger of over-exposure to defensive equities or 'bond proxies.'