Turbulence

This was to be a busy week of U.S. economic news, but markets themselves grabbed the headlines.

Chinese stocks fell almost 9% in Shanghai overnight Tuesday. The Dow responded by dropping over 500 points as part of a world wide rout in share prices.

Among the economic news, there was plenty to make investors revise their expectations.

Alan Greenspan suggested there might be a recession in our future. (See below.)

GDP growth

The estimated growth of the U.S. economy was revised downward. The Commerce Department said GDP grew only 2.2 percent (that is a seasonally adjusted annual rate) far short of the 3.5 percent initially reported. That is one of the largest downward revisions in a long time. The main culprit was the estimate of inventory investment, although downward revisions of fixed business investment spending and consumer spending on durable goods and nondurable goods all contributed.

The fourth quarter saw a big inventory sell off. Although this pulled down estimated GDP growth by 1.35 percentage points (final sales grew 3.6 percent), a drop in inventories can be a good omen for future production. We must take a careful look at its composition.

New home sales dropped 16.6 percent in January.

The housing sector is continuing to worry investors. They are right to worry. The lenders who financed the run-up in house prices are now finding their capital strained. See Justin Lahart: "After Subprime: Lax Lending Lurks Elsewhere" and Robin Sidel And David Reilly, "No Worries: Banks Keeping Less Money in Reserve."


The fallout

Viewed from the vantage point of Thursday afternoon, investors seem to have taken Professor Greenspan’s advice. They are now a bit more risk adverse. Consequently stocks are a bit cheaper, government bonds a bit dearer, and high yield bonds’ yields are higher. And analysts are now a bit gun shy about saying the economy has nowhere to go but up.

"We have extraordinarily low risk premiums now."

The Wall Street Journal quotes Alan Greenspan that we may have a recession later this year. To some extent the Journal is trying to make a headline. Alan Greenspan would always say that the next phase of our current cycle is a recession: that's what follows an expansion. The question is when. He warned his audience that the cycle is mature: profit margins are no longer expanding.

He found "disturbing" how low risk premia have fallen. Professor Greenspan was teaching us that when we discount risk too much we set ourselves up for a fall. When shocks occur, investors and institutions become more risk averse in reaction. This sets up the pull back in lending, investing, and spending that drives the economy down.

Is the News That the Employment Report Was Weak or that BLS Found another Million Jobs?

BLS's January Employment Report

The Labor Department's January employment report came out today. Economists' reactions were all over the map. And well they should be.

When the Bureau of Labor (BLS) asked firms how many people were on their payrolls, the results indicated that jobs grew by a fairly modest 111,000 in January. When its surveyors phoned households, they found that 4.6 percent of the workforce said they were unemployed, up from December's 4.5 percent.

Conclusion: based on those bare facts, the economy is growing but somewhat weakly. Hence the Wall Street Journal's headline: "Heading for a Soft Landing."


But you need to read the fine print to get the real shock! The statisticians on Massachusetts Avenue rebenchmarked their samples to an actual count of firms who are registered with the state employment offices.

Guess what?

There were 981,000 more jobs in December than BLS had estimated in its previous report. The monthly data were revised back almost two years. (The revision is "only" 933,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis.)

This means that the year over year employment growth in December was 1.66 percent. A month ago, we thought employment had grown only 1.37 percent. Apparently the economy was stronger than the 2006 data initially led us to believe. On Wednesday we got a surprise. The Commerce Department reported the Gross Domestic Product grew a strong 3.5 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the last quarter. In light of these revisions, it should not have been such a surprise.

Fed watchers should note that the economists who work for Dr. Bernake also read footnotes!

What is a Forecaster to Do?

This episode gives you a little insight into the real difficulties of business forecasting.

Consider the Postal Service which not only has one of the most sophisticated business forecasting systems in the world, but also shares it with the public through its rate filings. When you read the testimony of Thomas E. Thress one of the Postal Service's experts with RCF Consulting, you will find that a similar measure of employment in the forecasting equation for First-Class single piece mail. One of the attractions of this variable in forecasting and econometric work is its robustness against revision and statistical reporting quirks by the reporting agency (BLS.)

Unfortunately, the gnomes in the bowels of BLS are not cooperating.

Durable Goods Were Up in December; New Home Sales Were Down 17.3% in 2006

In two separate releases, the Commerce Department showed some strength in manufacturing. House sales did a bit better in December, but were way below a year ago. Particularly relevant to Wichita, new orders for aircraft and aircraft parts excluding defense orders were up by $3.8 billion.
To quote the Wall Street Journal, "A surge in aircraft orders accounted for a large part of the gain, but orders for "core" capital goods excluding defense and aircraft were also up at a good clip."

NBC is wroth about a breach of its rules: What about the shareholders' money?

Victor Jung used to be the treasurer at NBC Universal. According to this morning's Wall Street Journal. He has been charged with stealing some $800,000 over a six month period. Mr. Jung set up a corporation "NBCU Media Productions LLC and wired transferred funds from a GE account" to bank accounts in its name. These accounts financed some fancy flings and a place in the Hamptons.

He was arrested 6:00 A.M. yesterday.

I wonder what he was thinking? "They won't notice $800,000: it's rounding error."

Of course, maybe he is innocent. Perhaps in the wacky world of the media, he was simply facilitating the extravagence of his superiors.

The unsung hero of the piece is the internal auditor who caught him. Internal auditing has been booming after the wakiness of the internet boom went out of fashion. What was ordinary business practice was seen to be just plain silly when that bubble burst. Sarbanes Oxley has super charged the boom. The most recent figures I saw had internal auditors' salaries growing in double digits. The demand outstrips the applicants off into the future.

Most interesting in this news story is NBC Universal's reaction:

Consider its public statement: "NBC Universal is committed to and vigilant about the enforcement of its compliance policies. When we discovered the potential integrity breach, we promptly brought it to the appropriate authorities and are cooperating fully with the investigation. We will continue to monitor the situation to its resolution."

That is a far cry from "That blankety blank stole the shareholders' money and we want every red cent back!" Perhaps the flack under the NBC peacock is singing a song for his grey flannel superiors at GE where the corporate culture is probably a lot less flamboyant.

In general, the return to corporate sanity after the internet bubble burst is salutary. But I also wonder whether in the post Sarbanes-Oxley world, companies are worrying more about following the rules, than growing the value of their businesses?

Click Here to See the Oil Price's Ups and Downs

Crude oil prices dropped two dollars today after reports that inventories are up. The Wall Street Journal has provided this graph of its history in real terms and in nominal terms. The real price is the price adjusted to the U.S. price level in January, 2007.

Is My Understanding of the English Language Becoming Obsolete?

In today's Wall Street Journal, Joe Dickerson, an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP, is quoted saying that J.P. Morgan "is making tangible progress on leveraging its diverse business model to the bottom line." Atlantic Equities is a London independent research firm.

What does he mean? By "diverse business model," does he mean that J.P. Morgan has multiple business models? Or does he mean that the bank's business model is based on a diversity of business (each with its own business model)?

I have a personal preference for the more straightforward verb "lever" over the rethreaded noun, "leverage." Whatever my preference, I know I am spitting into the wind on this one. That said, how does one lever a diverse business model to a bottom line? That is not a matter of levering or amplifying.

So what does he mean? My hunch is that J.P. Morgan has made progress integrating banks it has bought and achieving some economies of scope between such diverse businesses as securities trading, investment banking, retail banking, and credit cards. And perhaps he is right.

If I were an investor in J.P. Morgan, my worry would be this: The bank is gaining an earnings boost from over levered consumers who are falling back on their credit cards lines. Will that interest income disappear in the future when some of those balances evaporate into loan loss reserves?

National Employment

The national unemployment rate was 4.5 percent and national payrolls grew by 167,000 jobs in December. In November, Wichita's unemployment rate fell to three tenths percent below the national employment rate.

Although the transportation sector (which includes the aircraft industry) lost five thousand jobs nationwide, the losses were overwhelmingly were among firms producing motor vehicles and parts. The American automotive industry is suffering from both a declining vehicle market and stiff foreign competition. Employment in motor vehicles and parts has declined 4.9 percent over the last twelve months while jobs in the rest of the transportation equipment sector increased by two percent.

Overall, employment is doing well. Jobs were 1.4 percent higher in December, 2006 than in December, 2005. This steady growth seems to be holding up despite the economy's slower second half growth (see the chart.)

The Wichita Job Market

Wichita's unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent from 4.4 percent from October to November. This reflected strong growth in payrolls in the metropolitan area. In the Bureau of Labor Statistics' November Metropolitan Employment Report, businesses reported 294.4 thousand workers on their payrolls. This was a full thousand more than in October. Jobs grew 1.8 percent over November last year.

The job growth reflects the continuing strength of the local economy, particularly the aircraft industry. That industry's unfilled orders have grown. The job growth is the more impressive given that Raytheon Aircraft has been operating under a job freeze while its pending sale was being resolved.